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antfaber |
A good way to become a better citizen & consumer |
Lead | |
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Lies, Damned Lies and Science by Sherry Seethaler does a pretty good job of explaining how science works without
sending innumerates (John Allen Paulos's book, Innumeracy, is a great book about how not knowing math will
be the ruin of America) running for the exits, and it gives a pretty good collection of indicators that tell you it's time to cover your wallet when
science is invoked in support of or against things. Darrell Huff's How to Lie with Statistics is the classic
in the field of obfuscational statistics, but doesn't talk about science much.
Last Edited By: antfaber 06/12/09 16:42:25.
Edited 1 time.
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Uncle Miltie |
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Part of the problem is a complete lack of skepticism by the public. People read a big number, let's say the dollar cost of replacing BART cars, and they say to themselves, "wow", that's alot of money, or "great, new cars", but don't employ division to realize that the bart cars will cost an average of $5 million each. Seems to me that's way too much money to pay for a car (especially in a downturn) when I could get a plane for that much. See the movie Idiocracy. |
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WishYouWereDead |
alternate reality | ||
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"I could get a plane for that much." - Mr. Berle
yeah, but then you'd have to pay a fortune for fuel... just to take commuters into the city?... now, helicopters, that might be the answer... but then, they crash every now and then (as do planes)... no, we're better off with bart cars, even at 5 million each (is that REALLY what they cost?)... |
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Uncle Miltie |
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Wish, I wasn't suggesting a plane, I was pointing out that it was strange that a train car cost that much. I was implying flat out fraud, if not just plain old fashioned gov't waste - ala the $500 Pentagon Toilet seat. But really, I was wondering, in line with the thread, that seemingly nobody raised an eyebrow that an immobile traincar with automatic doors costs $5mil a piece, especially when we're buying (I think)75 of them in one fell swoop! Let me guess - a no bid contract to a connected insider who's donated $$$ to someone's political campaign? Would that shock anyone? Might it make sense for BART to shop around or push back on pricing? |
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antfaber |
I don't think it's lack of skepticism. I think it's ignorance. | ||
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The problem is that a lot of people don't understand math, science or statistics well enough to understand what is being said. This includes a lot of the
journalists that write the stories on such things.
As a math major, I've had lots of people say "Oh, I can't do math" to me in an offhand way. I don't think that english majors get people saying "Oh, I can't read" to them in such a manner. Why is this? Because society recognizes that literacy is an important skill, but doesn't feel the same way about understanding math & science. |
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Uncle Miltie |
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You're right: Journalists are borderline mathematical illiterates, even those in the business press, who you'd expect to have a little fluency with
numbers. I remember a certain business times journalists who liked writing about restaurants. He wrote a story about how wine sales were a huge part of the
business. No shit, right? He mentioned the sadly now defunct Rubicon, where I was somewhat of a regular customer and he wrote that wine sales were fully 1/3
of their total, as though that was alot. And it would be, except for they had, at the time, a much talked about $1mil inventory of wine. I called the
reporter and told him that he needed to look at his numbers.
The MOST one could possibly spend at Rubicon on dinner was $60-70 for food - foie gras, squab, cheese, dessert, so assuming that was their average (a generous assumption), their wine sales averaged $30-45/head. Their average bottle was over $100, so the average guest would have been drinking 2 glasses, max. If they did 100 diners/night every night, (which they weren't) that would mean, for argument's sake, $3000/night in wine sales or $18k/week, $80k/month, $1mil/year. In most retail businesses, you want to sell your inventory every month, BEFORE you have to pay for it. They were sitting on it for a year, after having paid for it, and the biz times reporter didn't have the wherewithall to ask why. When I read articles about the budget (local, state, federal), gov't purchasing, taxes, etc. I get the same feeling that the people writing the articles do not bother to multiply or divide enough to put the numbers in human perspective - or they expect their readers to do it (bad assumption). I get the feeling that they just cut and paste the numbers and don't engage in the investigative journalism that might ask the question, "why so much?" This illiteracy extends to discussions of health care, taxes, social programs, war spending, etc. It's as though the numbers are a greek term that they just feel they should pass on. I'd like to see reporters reduce things to a per/person cost: e.g. "The DPH's budget of $1.5b, or roughly $1.8k per resident of SF, helps take care of the roughly 10% (80,000) of uninsured residents at a cost of roughly $19k per uninsured per year. Private insurance HMO care thru Kaiser costs roughly $3k/person/year. When asked if the city would be better off if it closed the DPH and paid for Kaiser for the uninsured, Mitch Katz said, "General Hospital is one of the best trauma centers in the country, and even though we can't afford to retrofit it to make it Earthquake Safe, that's exactly why we need to increase funding. We also have contractual obligations to the hard working doctors and nurses who make up the backbone of Social Services." |
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